For What It’s Worth –
Hand Evaluation at Bridge
Prepared
by Jon Gustafson (June 2, 2007)
GUIDING
PRINCIPLE: Accurate evaluation of “playing strength” depends upon the valuation
of your (high) card and distributional strength, adjusted by the degree of fit
and mesh of high cards with your partner’s hand, and adjustments due to the
relative position of the opponent’s cards.
The
playing strength of a bridge hand is only as good as your fit with partner’s
hand. But there are many different
aspects of “fit.” Here’s some examples:
Example 1. You hold 
QJ1075
3
QJ1042
K6.
Partner
opens 1
and you respond 1.
Now if partner raises to 2,
,
this same hand has "little of sure value to offer partner...You could
procede [sic] with two diamonds, but gingerly." Interesting, isn't
it? In one auction your nine-HCP hand is worth a jump to game. In a different
auction, it is almost not worth taking a second call.
Example 2.
Consider this 13-HCP hand: 
A62 
A853 J54
A86
and compare it with this 17-HCP monster: K7 KQJ95 KQ10 K97.
Which hand would you rather have? Right,
it's a trick question! Opposite partner's vulnerable 3
opening bid,
opening bid could be a disaster. Assume that the AQJxxx of spades is behind you
and that
From The Complete Book on Hand Evaluation in Contract Bridge, by Mike Lawrence, published by Devyn Press, 1983 (excerpts from a review by Henry Sun, Fifthchair.org).
Example 3. “I only had 5 points” (from Improve
your Play, by Larry Matheny, published on NorthernColoradoBridge.com, 2007)
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*shows majors or minors |
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HAND
EVALUTAION MEASURES: Provide a dynamic
estimate of your playing strength, when combined with information from your
partner (and your opponents), allow the partnership to determine the strain and
level of the final contract.
There
are many different measures in use by bridge players. Some examples:
Early historical methods for assessing
overall hand strength:
§
counting
tricks, assessing both winners and losers (simple but sometimes overlooked)
§
honor
count based upon quick tricks from the Culbertson era (1930’s)
Widely used and refined methods for
assessing individual and combined hand strength:
§
the
4-3-2-1 honor count with distributional adjustments (credited to Milton Work and
popularized by Charles Goren, 1953)
§
Sheinwold
Point Count (Kaplan & Sheinwold, 1958)
§
Roth
Point Count (Alvin Roth, 1968)
Methods primarily designed to assist in fit valuation:
§
Losing
Trick Count (Courtenay 1937, Klinger 1989)
§
The
Law of Total Tricks (Cohen 1993, Lawrence & Wirgren 1998)
Additional adjustments and guidelines:
§
- 4333
and 5332 are bad shapes, 5431, 55xx, 64xx are good shapes
- the
rule of 20 (or perhaps 19): if the sum of the lengths of your two longest suits
+ high cards in those suits is at least 20 (19) then open
The
Sheinwold Point Count system:
|
Initial Hand Valuation |
|
|
high cards |
A=4,
K=3, Q=2, J=1 |
|
shortness |
doubleton=1,
singleton=2, void=3 |
|
aceless |
-1 |
|
3 or 4 aces |
worth
more |
|
Q or J |
only
worth full value when accompanied by an ace or king |
|
singleton K or doubleton Q or J |
not
worth full value |
|
Declarer’s Hand
Valuation |
|
|
5th card in
trump suit |
+1 |
|
6th card in
trump suit |
+3 |
|
7th card in
trump suit |
+5 |
|
Dummy’s Hand Valuation |
|
|
4+ trumps and a
doubleton |
+1 |
|
4+ trumps and a
singleton |
+3 |
|
4+ trumps and a void |
+5 |
Points required for important contracts:
|
Contract |
Points Required |
|
3NT |
25 |
|
4 of Major |
26 |
|
5 of Minor |
29 |
|
Small slam |
33 |
|
Grand slam |
37 |
It
is essential that you and your partners have a firm, precise understanding of
the range of strength shown by every bid.
It will not be very useful to have an accurate estimation of your hand’s
playing strength and not be able to communicate this information. The combined strength of the two hands
determines what level you can reach and bids must be well defined in order to
assess the combined strength.
As
we saw in the examples above that your evaluation of playing strength will
evolve from the time you pick up your hand until the last pass. You are successful if there are no last
minute adjustments to your estimate AFTER the opening lead.
Example 4. Evaluation in action. (from
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Discussion points:
§ North bids 1
– 15 high + 2 distribution, the stiff J counts for 0
§
East
overcalls 1
– 10 high + 1 distribution, good diamond suit probably worth mentioning
§
South
bids 1 – 8 high + 0
distribution, bid shows 6-9 points
§
North
bids 3 – 15 high + 3
distribution, the bid shows 16-18 points exactly, 3 aces is a plus, but not
enough to upgrade to 19 points
§
South
bids 4 – is at the top of his
6-9, worst case 8+16=24 combined but all his cards are working
§
If
west were to carelessly lead a club NS might make six, so east’s diamond bid
was important
§
NS
easily makes 5 spades losing only a diamond and a club
Example 5. A sign of life – finding a fit is
everything. (from
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Discussion points:
§
East
bids 1
– 20 points (16 high + 3 distribution, 1 for three aces)
§
South
overcalls 1
– 11 points (10 high + 1 distribution), enough to mount a small fight
§
West
passes – 3 points, the jack of diamonds is at most a defensive card
§
North
bids 1 – 10 points (9 high,
forget the club jack + 1 distribution, a very good four card spade suit with
diamonds in reserve
§
East
bids 2
– no re-evaluation yet, and if partner wasn’t excited by my club bid, now is
the last chance to try hearts
§
South
and west have nothing to say – and don’t stretch with nothing more, trust your
partner to carry on if it’s right
§
North
raises to 3
– 12 points (9 high + 3 distribution, 2 shortness, 1 length), in spite of the
bid fit, south’s limiting pass suggests this is about as high as we’ll go
§
East
and south have nothing to say
§
Now
west bids 3
– having clearly limited his hand earlier to less than 6 points, with four good
hearts and 3 points including honors in both of partner’s suits is enough to
bid on after east’s strong bidding.
§
East
now bids 4
– finally a sign of life, and with 22 points (16 high + 3 shortness, 1 three
aces, maybe +2 for likely added club fit) there should be a play for game
§
East
needs to play on trumps and clubs as quickly as possible to thwart the forcing
game by NS.
Example 6. More than one way to count. (from D17 Grand National Teams Flight A
semi-final, Monday, May 26, 2007)
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* 1 or 4 key cards |
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Discussion points:
§
East
opens 3
– a weak hand worth 9 points (6 high + 3 short suit distribution) emboldened
against possible bad breaks by the favorable vulnerability
§
West
bids 4NT – 21 points (18 high + 3 distribution, as good as 4 trumps with known
ten card fit, first or second round controls in all suits) asks for key cards
§
East
has one key card, surely the spade ace and now east can count 12 highly likely tricks,
7 spades assuming the suit breaks 2-1 and a club ruff plus four top side tricks. This contract will fail only if the trumps
are 3-0 off-side or opener has a singleton club plus no red queen. After finding the fit east’s hand is worth 11
(6 high + 5 for the seven card trump suit).
Note that there are 33 combined points and 12 projected tricks. Both roads lead to the same conclusion.
Points to remember and
put into practice:
§
Choose
an evaluation method and use it faithfully.
§
Practice
counting your points and making distribution adjustments as the auction
progresses.
§
Regularly
review failed and successful contracts looking to correct errors in evaluation
and miscommunication of strength. Hand
records are valuable tools – use them.
ADJUSTING
THE COUNT: Areas to watch for unexpected
strength and weakness.
Quickly and reliably calculating your playing
strength is the cornerstone of good bidding.
But good judgment is built upon this foundation through fine adjustments
to your running estimate. The following is
from Hand Evaluations by Brian
Senior, at msoworld.com.
Positive features – factors that might persuade you to upgrade your hand:
§
Honor
cards in combination
§
Honors
in partner's suits especially in support.
§
Many
intermediates
§
Intermediates
in long suits
§
Having
a five card suit or two four card suits
§
Honors
in long suits
§
Length
in the major suits
§
Holding
aces
§
Honors
in suits bid by
§
No
wasted honors opposite partner’s shortness
§
The
spade suit when opening discourages overcalls by the opponents
Negative features –
factors which might suggest you
downgrade your hand:
§
Secondary
honors in short suits, unless in partners suit: doubleton KQ, QJ. Qx, Jx
§
Honor
singletons except the A
§
Lack
of intermediates
§
Sterile
distribution 4333, 5332, 6332, 7222
§
Too
many jacks
§
Honors
in suits bid by LHO
§
Honors
in opponent’s suit
§
Suits
headed by unsupported honors and non-touching honors
§
Excessive
honors within suit fits
§
The
club suit when opening allows opponents to overcall more easily
Sources of duplication:
§
Honors
in the same short suit as partner
§
The
same short suit as partner
§
Secondary
honors in partners short suits
When in
competition (overcalls and takeout doubles):
§
Good
suits are valuable lead suggestions
§
At
least have a good suit if the overcall consumes little bidding space
§
Overcalls
which consume bidding space can be successful but also create greater risk
§
Flexible
distributions should encourage you to compete:
5431, 6421, 6430, 6511, 6520, 7321, 7330
Which hand is better?
|
(1) |
|
63 |
(2) |
|
QJ |
The
same shape and honor cards, but hand (1) has the edge because there are more
honor cards in the long suits where they will help to establish extra length
tricks. Honors in a short suit may still win tricks, but they are less likely
to help establish length tricks. |
|
|
|
K83 |
|
|
AQJ |
|
|
|
|
QJ84 |
|
|
K843 |
|
|
|
|
AQJ5 |
|
|
8653 |
|
(3) |
|
98643 |
(4) |
|
AQ986 |
The
same shape and honor cards but (4) is much stronger. The doubleton honors in
hand (3) are not pulling any weight.
Either black suit in hand (3) would require partner to hold a number
of honors, while just one honor would be sufficient opposite each of hand
(4)'s black suits. |
|
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|
AQ |
|
|
43 |
|
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|
KQ |
|
|
32 |
|
|
|
|
J832 |
|
|
KQJ8 |
|
(5) |
|
A84 |
(6) |
|
A84 |
If
partner has three small cards opposite your diamonds the five card suit will
usually produce one more trick. After
opening one diamond, rebidding 1NT and partner invites a NT game the long
suit plus intermediates make hand (5) a game accepting maximum. |
|
|
|
K5 |
|
|
K65 |
|
|
|
|
AJ1096 |
|
|
AJ109 |
|
|
|
|
1095 |
|
|
1095 |
|
(7) |
|
KQ8 |
(8) |
|
AQ8 |
The
diamond suit in hand (7) justifies upgrading the hand by at least a point to
14, while (8) might not be quite worth 13 points. Hand (7) is a clear NT game acceptance
while (8) would be better to decline.
Following an inverted diamond raise hand (8) would probably accept a
NT game invitation. |
|
|
|
QJ5 |
|
|
QJ7 |
|
|
|
|
KQ1092 |
|
|
107643 |
|
|
|
|
85 |
|
|
A9 |
Points to remember and
put into practice:
§
Keep
these types of adjustments in mind and make it a regular part of the process of
estimating the playing strength of your hand.
§
Stay
flexible in how you think of the strength of your hand – continue to adjust and
refine that value as the auction progresses.
§
Work
at improving your judgment. Regularly
review both failed and successful contracts looking to detect and correct these
types of adjustments. Again, hand
records are valuable tools – use them.
Seeing what works and what doesn’t will build confidence in your judgment.
HOW TO
IMPROVE: Developing and refining hand
evaluation skill requires practice. Trial
and error with plenty of self evaluation, along with the attitude to remain
flexible and open minded in incorporating what you learn.
§
Do
not get in the habit of counting your high card points and establishing this
value in your mind as the set value of your hand.
§
Be
flexible: count points, tricks, quick
losers, and projected winners throughout the auction.
§
Choose
bids which communicate your playing strength and that elicit information that
will allow you to refine your estimates of playing strength.
§
Have
confidence that these measures are reliable.
Most of the time you cannot accurately count the combined tricks. Total point count is amazingly accurate and
frequently more versatile than other measures.
§
But,
we have seen that adjustments must be made as we discover additional
information about the fit and mesh of our hands throughout the auction.
§
When
your evaluation fails – you are either too high or too low – check the hand
records and in consultation with your partner, review your combined step by
step evaluation process. Determine what
positive and/or negative points were overlooked.